Well you stated in your original post that you bought it from "an honest bike mechanic" so maybe they were honest but no mechanic. So is there even a choke cable? There is no way this engine should start well without choke so it has been horribly detuned to start without choke. I would say to follow the cable down but if none then look here:
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View attachment 308617
or better if you can contact the seller and ask what they did instead of choke lever and cable?
Hopefully the hole has been somehow capped but really not good.
gdb is right, this is a serious issue, to not have a choke on a carbed engine. Either someone is misunderstanding something (e.g. you just can't find it), or the bike is has been screwed with in a bad way. I can't stress enough, that you need to get to the bottom of this.
I leave my shadow ace out in the rain all the time (don't have a garage atm). No problems. Water should not be finding it's way into your tank (you'd have to have a bad seal on the cap, and I can't imagine how terrible it would have to be to let enough water in to cause no-start). There's even less chance that it made its way into your carbs.
You say the engine cranks but doesn't turn over... those are actually the same thing. So I guess it's cranking but not firing up and running. You say cranking sounds the same as always, so I doubt it's the battery. Doesn't take much to start these old bikes with no ECUs; you'd hear the difference. Not going to hurt to try jumping it, so you could try it to rule that out, but on the assumption that the battery is not the culprit...
So, why doesn't your bike fire up? Fuel, spark, compression....
Compression - this won't be your problem.
Fuel - I'm incredibly leery of this whole no-choke situation. That right there should stop the bike from starting in most weather. What has the temperature been since you bought the bike (when it was starting fine), and what is the temperature now that it won't start? The cooler it gets, the more necessary choke would become. I suppose it's possible that you hit a tipping point.
Spark - a likely water-related issue would be that you got water somewhere it didn't belong, and shorted something out... check the ICU as mentioned, and check all your fuses. Make sure you didn't pop one.